Zitian Gao, Yihao Xiao
Aug 18, 2024·q-fin.CP·PDF In the Venture Capital (VC) industry, predicting the success of startups is challenging due to limited financial data and the need for subjective revenue forecasts. Previous methods based on time series analysis often fall short as they fail to incorporate crucial inter-company relationships such as competition and collaboration. To fill the gap, this paper aims to introduce a novel approach using GraphRAG augmented time series model. With GraphRAG, time series predictive methods are enhanced by integrating these vital relationships into the analysis framework, allowing for a more dynamic understanding of the startup ecosystem in venture capital. Our experimental results demonstrate that our model significantly outperforms previous models in startup success predictions.
Zitian Gao, Lynx Chen, Yihao Xiao, He Xing, Ran Tao, Haoming Luo, Joey Zhou, Bryan Dai
Universal transformers (UTs) have been widely used for complex reasoning tasks such as ARC-AGI and Sudoku, yet the specific sources of their performance gains remain underexplored. In this work, we systematically analyze UTs variants and show that improvements on ARC-AGI primarily arise from the recurrent inductive bias and strong nonlinear components of Transformer, rather than from elaborate architectural designs. Motivated by this finding, we propose the Universal Reasoning Model (URM), which enhances the UT with short convolution and truncated backpropagation. Our approach substantially improves reasoning performance, achieving state-of-the-art 53.8% pass@1 on ARC-AGI 1 and 16.0% pass@1 on ARC-AGI 2. Our code is avaliable at https://github.com/UbiquantAI/URM.
Yilong Chen, Yanxi Xie, Zitian Gao, He Xin, Yihao Xiao, Renbiao Liu, Haoming Luo, Yifan Luo, Zhengmao Ye, Tingwen Liu, Xin Zhao, Ran Tao, Bryan Dai
Large token-indexed lookup tables provide a compute-decoupled scaling path, but their practical gains are often limited by poor parameter efficiency and rapid memory growth. We attribute these limitations to Zipfian under-training of the long tail, heterogeneous demand across layers, and "slot collapse" that produces redundant embeddings. To address this, we propose X-GRAM, a frequency-aware dynamic token-injection framework. X-GRAM employs hybrid hashing and alias mixing to compress the tail while preserving head capacity, and refines retrieved vectors via normalized SwiGLU ShortConv to extract diverse local n-gram features. These signals are integrated into attention value streams and inter-layer residuals using depth-aware gating, effectively aligning static memory with dynamic context. This design introduces a memory-centric scaling axis that decouples model capacity from FLOPs. Extensive evaluations at the 0.73B and 1.15B scales show that X-GRAM improves average accuracy by as much as 4.4 points over the vanilla backbone and 3.2 points over strong retrieval baselines, while using substantially smaller tables in the 50% configuration. Overall, by decoupling capacity from compute through efficient memory management, X-GRAM offers a scalable and practical paradigm for future memory-augmented architectures. Code aviliable in https://github.com/Longyichen/X-gram.