Roadmap for Reliable Ensemble Forecasting of the Sun-Earth System

Gelu Nita, Rafal Angryk, Berkay Aydin, Juan Banda, Tim Bastian, Tom Berger, Veronica Bindi, Laura Boucheron, Wenda Cao, Eric Christian, Georgia de Nolfo, Edward DeLuca, Marc DeRosa, Cooper Downs, Gregory Fleishman, Olac Fuentes, Dale Gary, Frank Hill, Todd Hoeksema, Qiang Hu, Raluca Ilie, Jack Ireland, Farzad Kamalabadi, Kelly Korreck, Alexander Kosovichev, Jessica Lin, Noe Lugaz, Anthony Mannucci, Nagi Mansour, Petrus Martens, Leila Mays, James McAteer, Scott W. McIntosh, Vincent Oria, David Pan, Marco Panesi, W. Dean Pesnell, Alexei Pevtsov, Valentin Pillet, Laurel Rachmeler, Aaron Ridley, Ludger Scherliess, Gabor Toth, Marco Velli, Stephen White, Jie Zhang, Shasha Zou

The authors of this report met on 28-30 March 2018 at the New Jersey Institute of Technology, Newark, New Jersey, for a 3-day workshop that brought together a group of data providers, expert modelers, and computer and data scientists, in the solar discipline. Their objective was to identify challenges in the path towards building an effective framework to achieve transformative advances in the understanding and forecasting of the Sun-Earth system from the upper convection zone of the Sun to the Earth's magnetosphere. The workshop aimed to develop a research roadmap that targets the scientific challenge of coupling observations and modeling with emerging data-science research to extract knowledge from the large volumes of data (observed and simulated) while stimulating computer science with new research applications. The desire among the attendees was to promote future trans-disciplinary collaborations and identify areas of convergence across disciplines. The workshop combined a set of plenary sessions featuring invited introductory talks and workshop progress reports, interleaved with a set of breakout sessions focused on specific topics of interest. Each breakout group generated short documents, listing the challenges identified during their discussions in addition to possible ways of attacking them collectively. These documents were combined into this report-wherein a list of prioritized activities have been collated, shared and endorsed.

All-sky Medium Energy Gamma-ray Observatory: Exploring the Extreme Multimessenger Universe

Julie McEnery, Juan Abel Barrio, Ivan Agudo, Marco Ajello, José-Manuel Álvarez, Stefano Ansoldi, Sonia Anton, Natalia Auricchio, John B. Stephen, Luca Baldini, Cosimo Bambi, Matthew Baring, Ulisses Barres, Denis Bastieri, John Beacom, Volker Beckmann, Wlodek Bednarek, Denis Bernard, Elisabetta Bissaldi, Peter Bloser, Harsha Blumer, Markus Boettcher, Steven Boggs, Aleksey Bolotnikov, Eugenio Bottacini, Vladimir Bozhilov, Enrico Bozzo, Michael Briggs, Jim Buckley, Eric Burns, Sara Buson, Riccardo Campana, Regina Caputo, Martina Cardillo, Ezio Caroli, Daniel Castro, S. Brad Cenko, Eric Charles, Wenlei Chen, Teddy Cheung, Stefano Ciprini, Paolo Coppi, Rui Curado da Silva, Sara Cutini, Filippo D'Ammando, Alessandro De Angelis, Michaël De Becker, Georgia De Nolfo, Stefano Del Sordo, Mattia Di Mauro, Leonardo Di Venere, Stefano Dietrich, Seth Digel, Alberto Dominguez, Michele Doro, Elizabeth Ferrara, Brian Fields, Justin Finke, Luca Foffano, Chris Fryer, Yasushi Fukazawa, Stefan Funk, Dario Gasparrini, Joseph Gelfand, Markos Georganopoulos, Francesco Giordano, Andrea Giuliani, Christian Gouiffes, Brian Grefenstette, Isabelle Grenier, Sean Griffin, Eric Grove, Sylvain Guiriec, Alice Harding, Pat Harding, Dieter Hartmann, Elizabeth Hays, Margarita Hernanz, Jack Hewitt, Jamie Holder, Michelle Hui, Andrew Inglis, Robert Johnson, Sam Jones, Gottfried Kanbach, Oleg Kargaltsev, Sarah Kaufmann, Matthew Kerr, Carolyn Kierans, Fabian Kislat, Alexei V. Klimenko, Jurgen Knodlseder, Daniel Kocveski, Joachim Kopp, Henric Krawczynsiki, John Krizmanic, Hidetoshi Kubo, Naoko Kurahashi Neilson, Philippe Laurent, Jean-Philippe Lenain, Hui Li, Amy Lien, Tim Linden, Jan Lommler, Francesco Longo, Michael Lovellette, Marcos López, Antonios Manousakis, Lea Marcotulli, Alexandre Marcowith, Manel Martinez, Marc McConnell, Jessica Metcalfe, Eileen Meyer, Manuel Meyer, Roberto Mignani, John Mitchell, Tsunefumi Mizuno, Alexander Moiseev, Daniel Morcuende, Igor Moskalenko, Michael Moss, Kazuhiro Nakazawa, M. Nicola Mazziotta, Uwe Oberlack, Masanori Ohno, Foteini Oikonomou, Roopesh Ojha, Nicola Omodei, Elena Orlando, Nepomuk Otte, Vaidehi S Paliya, Lucas Parker, Barbara Patricelli, Jeremy Perkins, Maria Petropoulou, Carlotta Pittori, Martin Pohl, Troy Porter, Elisa Prandini, Chanda Prescod-Weinstein, Judith Racusin, Riccardo Rando, Bindu Rani, Marc Ribó, James Rodi, Miguel A. Sanchez-Conde, Pablo Saz Parkinson, Richard Schirato, Peter Shawhan, Chris Shrader, Jacob Smith, Karl Smith, Antonio Stamerra, Lukasz Stawarz, Andy Strong, Inga Stumke, Hiro Tajima, Hiromitsu Takahashi, Yasuyuki Tanaka, Vincent Tatischeff, Lih-Sin The, David Thompson, Luigi Tibaldo, John Tomsick, Lucas Uhm, Tonia Venters, Tom Vestrand, Giacomo Vianello, Zorawar Wadiasingh, Roland Walter, Xilu Wang, David Williams, Colleen Wilson-Hodge, Matthew Wood, Richard Woolf, Eric Wulf, George Younes, Luca Zampieri, Silvia Zane, Bing Zhang, Haocheng Zhang, Stephan Zimmer, Andreas Zoglauer, Alexander van der Horst

Observations of the Li, Be, and B isotopes and constraints on cosmic-ray propagation

G. A. de Nolfo, I. V. Moskalenko, W. R. Binns, E. R. Christian, A. C. Cummings, A. J. Davis, J. S. George, P. L. Hink, M. H. Israel, R. A. Leske, M. Lijowski, R. A. Mewaldt, E. C. Stone, A. W. Strong, T. T. von Rosenvinge, M. E. Wiedenbeck, N. E. Yanasak

The abundance of Li, Be, and B isotopes in galactic cosmic rays (GCR) between E=50-200 MeV/nucleon has been observed by the Cosmic Ray Isotope Spectrometer (CRIS) on NASA's ACE mission since 1997 with high statistical accuracy. Precise observations of Li, Be, B can be used to constrain GCR propagation models. \iffalse Precise observations of Li, Be, and B in addition to well-measured production cross-sections are used to further constrain GCR propagation models. \fi We find that a diffusive reacceleration model with parameters that best match CRIS results (e.g. B/C, Li/C, etc) are also consistent with other GCR observations. A $\sim$15--20% overproduction of Li and Be in the model predictions is attributed to uncertainties in the production cross-section data. The latter becomes a significant limitation to the study of rare GCR species that are generated predominantly via spallation.

BurstCube: A CubeSat for Gravitational Wave Counterparts

Judith Racusin, Jeremy S. Perkins, Michael S. Briggs, Georgia de Nolfo, John Krizmanic, Regina Caputo, Julie E. McEnery, Peter Shawhan, David Morris, Valerie Connaughton, Dan Kocevski, Colleen Wilson-Hodge, Michelle Hui, Lee Mitchell, Sheila McBreen

BurstCube will detect long GRBs, attributed to the collapse of massive stars, short GRBs (sGRBs), resulting from binary neutron star mergers, as well as other gamma-ray transients in the energy range 10-1000 keV. sGRBs are of particular interest because they are predicted to be the counterparts of gravitational wave (GW) sources soon to be detectable by LIGO/Virgo. BurstCube contains 4 CsI scintillators coupled with arrays of compact low-power Silicon photomultipliers (SiPMs) on a 6U Dellingr bus, a flagship modular platform that is easily modifiable for a variety of 6U CubeSat architectures. BurstCube will complement existing facilities such as Swift and Fermi in the short term, and provide a means for GRB detection, localization, and characterization in the interim time before the next generation future gamma-ray mission flies, as well as space-qualify SiPMs and test technologies for future use on larger gamma-ray missions. The ultimate configuration of BurstCube is to have a set of $\sim10$ BurstCubes to provide all-sky coverage to GRBs for substantially lower cost than a full-scale mission.

BurstCube: Concept, Performance, and Status

Jacob R. Smith, Michael S. Briggs, Alessandro Bruno, Eric Burns, Regina Caputo, Brad Cenko, Antonino Cucchiara, Georgia de Nolfo, Sean Griffin, Lorraine Hanlon, Dieter H. Hartmann, Michelle Hui, Alyson Joens, Carolyn Kierans, Dan Kocevski, John Krizmanic, Amy Lien, Sheila McBreen, Julie E. McEnery, Lee Mitchell, David Morris, David Murphy, Jeremy S. Perkins, Judy Racusin, Peter Shawhan, Teresa Tatoli, Alexey Uliyanov, Sarah Walsh, Colleen Wilson-Hodge

The first simultaneous detection of a short gamma-ray burst (SGRB) with a gravitational-wave (GW) signal ushered in a new era of multi-messenger astronomy. In order to increase the number of SGRB-GW simultaneous detections, we need full sky coverage in the gamma-ray regime. BurstCube, a CubeSat for Gravitational Wave Counterparts, aims to expand sky coverage in order to detect and localize gamma-ray bursts (GRBs). BurstCube will be comprised of 4 Cesium Iodide scintillators coupled to arrays of Silicon photo-multipliers on a 6U CubeSat bus (a single U corresponds to cubic unit $\sim$10 cm $\times$ 10 cm $\times$ 10 cm) and will be sensitive to gamma-rays between 50 keV and 1 MeV, the ideal energy range for GRB prompt emission. BurstCube will assist current observatories, such as $Swift$ and $Fermi$, in the detection of GRBs as well as provide astronomical context to gravitational wave events detected by Advanced LIGO, Advanced Virgo, and KAGRA. BurstCube is currently in its development and testing phase to prepare for launch readiness in the fall of 2021. We present the mission concept, preliminary performance, and status.

Statistical Relationship Between Long-duration High-Energy Gamma-Ray Emission and Solar Energetic Particles

Alessandro Bruno, Georgia A. de Nolfo, James M. Ryan, Ian G. Richardson, Silvia Dalla

Large solar eruptions are often associated with long-duration gamma-ray emission extending well above 100 MeV. While this phenomenon is known to be caused by high-energy ions interacting with the solar atmosphere, the underlying dominant acceleration process remains under debate. Potential mechanisms include continuous acceleration of particles trapped within large coronal loops or acceleration at coronal mass ejection (CME)-driven shocks, with subsequent back-propagation towards the Sun. As a test of the latter scenario, previous studies have explored the relationship between the inferred particle population producing the high-energy gamma-rays, and the population of solar energetic particles (SEPs) measured in situ. However, given the significant limitations on available observations, these estimates unavoidably rely on a number of assumptions. In an effort to better constrain theories of the gamma-ray emission origin, we re-examine the calculation uncertainties and how they influence the comparison of these two proton populations. We show that, even accounting for conservative assumptions related to gamma-ray flare, SEP event and interplanetary scattering modeling, their statistical relationship is only poorly/moderately significant. However, though the level of correlation is of interest, it does not provide conclusive evidence for or against a causal connection. The main result of this investigation is that the fraction of the shock-accelerated protons required to account for the gamma-ray observations is >20-40% for six of the fourteen eruptions analyzed. Such high values argue against current CME-shock origin models, predicting a <2% back-precipitation, hence the computed numbers of high-energy SEPs appear to be greatly insufficient to sustain the measured gamma-ray emission.

Cosmic-Ray Positrons: Are There Primary Sources?

Stephane Coutu, Steven W. Barwick, James J. Beatty, Amit Bhattacharyya, Chuck R. Bower, Christopher J. Chaput, Georgia A. de Nolfo, Michael A. DuVernois, Allan Labrador, Shawn P. McKee, Dietrich Muller, James A. Musser, Scott L. Nutter, Eric Schneider, Simon P. Swordy, Gregory Tarle, Andrew D. Tomasch, Eric Torbet

Cosmic rays at the Earth include a secondary component originating in collisions of primary particles with the diffuse interstellar gas. The secondary cosmic rays are relatively rare but carry important information on the Galactic propagation of the primary particles. The secondary component includes a small fraction of antimatter particles, positrons and antiprotons. In addition, positrons and antiprotons may also come from unusual sources and possibly provide insight into new physics. For instance, the annihilation of heavy supersymmetric dark matter particles within the Galactic halo could lead to positrons or antiprotons with distinctive energy signatures. With the High-Energy Antimatter Telescope (HEAT) balloon-borne instrument, we have measured the abundances of positrons and electrons at energies between 1 and 50 GeV. The data suggest that indeed a small additional antimatter component may be present that cannot be explained by a purely secondary production mechanism. Here we describe the signature of the effect and discuss its possible origin.

Near-Earth Supernova Explosions: Evidence, Implications, and Opportunities

Brian D. Fields, John R. Ellis, Walter R. Binns, Dieter Breitschwerdt, Georgia A. de Nolfo, Roland Diehl, Vikram V. Dwarkadas, Adrienne Ertel, Thomas Faestermann, Jenny Feige, Caroline Fitoussi, Priscilla Frisch, David Graham, Brian Haley, Alexander Heger, Wolfgang Hillebrandt, Martin H. Israel, Thomas Janka, Michael Kachelriess, Gunther Korschinek, Marco Limongi, Maria Lugaro, Franciole Marinho, Adrian Melott, Richard A. Mewaldt, Jesse Miller, Ryan C. Ogliore, Michael Paul, Laura Paulucci, Mark Pecaut, Brian F. Rauch, Karl E. Rehm, Michael Schulreich, Ivo Seitenzahl, Mads Sorensen, Friedrich-Karl Thielemann, Francis X. Timmes, Brian C. Thomas, Anton Wallner

There is now solid experimental evidence of at least one supernova explosion within 100 pc of Earth within the last few million years, from measurements of the short-lived isotope 60Fe in widespread deep-ocean samples, as well as in the lunar regolith and cosmic rays. This is the first established example of a specific dated astrophysical event outside the Solar System having a measurable impact on the Earth, offering new probes of stellar evolution, nuclear astrophysics, the astrophysics of the solar neighborhood, cosmic-ray sources and acceleration, multi-messenger astronomy, and astrobiology. Interdisciplinary connections reach broadly to include heliophysics, geology, and evolutionary biology. Objectives for the future include pinning down the nature and location of the established near-Earth supernova explosions, seeking evidence for others, and searching for other short-lived isotopes such as 26Al and 244Pu. The unique information provided by geological and lunar detections of radioactive 60Fe to assess nearby supernova explosions make now a compelling time for the astronomy community to advocate for supporting multi-disciplinary, cross-cutting research programs.

Energetic Proton Back-Precipitation onto the Solar Atmosphere in Relation to Long-Duration Gamma-Ray Flares

Adam Hutchinson, Silvia Dalla, Timo Laitinen, Georgia A. de Nolfo, Alessandro Bruno, James M. Ryan, Charlotte O. G. Waterfall

Gamma-ray emission during long-duration gamma-ray flare (LDGRF) events is thought to be caused mainly by $>$300 MeV protons interacting with the ambient plasma at or near the photosphere. Prolonged periods of the gamma-ray emission have prompted the suggestion that the source of the energetic protons is acceleration at a coronal mass ejection (CME)-driven shock, followed by particle back-precipitation onto the solar atmosphere over extended times. We study the latter hypothesis using test particle simulations, which allow us to investigate whether scattering associated with turbulence aids particles in overcoming the effect of magnetic mirroring, which impedes back-precipitation by reflecting particles as they travel sunwards. The instantaneous precipitation fraction, $P$, the proportion of protons that successfully precipitate for injection at a fixed height, $r_i$, is studied as a function of scattering mean free path, $λ$ and $r_i$. Upper limits to the total precipitation fraction, $\overline{P}$, were calculated for eight LDGRF events for moderate scattering conditions ($λ$=0.1 au). We find that the presence of scattering helps back-precipitation compared to the scatter-free case, although at very low $λ$ values outward convection with the solar wind ultimately dominates. For eight LDGRF events, due to strong mirroring, $\overline{P}$ is very small, between 0.56 and 0.93% even in the presence of scattering. Time-extended acceleration and large total precipitation fractions, as seen in the observations, cannot be reconciled for a moving shock source according to our simulations. Therefore, it is not possible to obtain both long duration $γ$ ray emission and efficient precipitation within this scenario. These results challenge the CME shock source scenario as the main mechanism for $γ$ ray production in LDGRFs.