The Sensitivity and Stability of the Ocean's Thermohaline Circulation to Finite-Amplitude Perturbations

Abstract Within a simple model context, the sensitivity and stability of the thermohaline circulation to finite-amplitude perturbations are studied. A new approach is used to tackle this nonlinear problem. The method is based on the computation of the so-called conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP), which is a nonlinear generalization of the linear singular vector approach (LSV). It is shown that linearly stable thermohaline circulation states can become nonlinearly unstable, and the properties of the perturbations with optimal nonlinear growth are determined. An asymmetric nonlinear response to perturbations exists with respect to the sign of finite-amplitude freshwater perturbations, on both thermally dominated and salinity-dominated thermohaline flows. This asymmetry is due to the nonlinear interaction of the perturbations through advective processes.