Exact black hole degeneracies and the topological string

Motivated by the recent conjecture of Ooguri, Strominger and Vafa, we compute the semi-canonical partition function of BPS black holes in = 4 and = 8 string theories, to all orders in perturbation theory. Not only are the black hole partition functions surprisingly simple; they capture the full topological string amplitudes, as expected from the OSV conjecture. The agreement is not perfect, however, as there are differences between the black hole and topological string partition functions even at the perturbative level. We propose a minimal modification of the OSV conjecture, in which these differences are understood as a nontrivial measure factor for the topological string.