Statistical mechanics model for the emergence of consensus.

The statistical properties of pairwise majority voting over S alternatives are analyzed in an infinite random population. We first compute the probability that the majority is transitive (i.e., that if it prefers A to B to C , then it prefers A to C) and then study the case of an interacting population. This is described by a constrained multicomponent random field Ising model whose ferromagnetic phase describes the emergence of a strong transitive majority. We derive the phase diagram, which is characterized by a tricritical point and show that, contrary to intuition, it may be more likely for an interacting population to reach consensus on a number S of alternatives when S increases. This effect is due to the constraint imposed by transitivity on voting behavior. Indeed if agents are allowed to express nontransitive votes, the agents' interaction may decrease considerably the probability of a transitive majority.