Hypothesis-Based Particle Detection for Accurate Nanoparticle Counting and Digital Diagnostics

Digital assays represent a shift from traditional diagnostics and enable the precise detection of low-abundance analytes, critical for early disease diagnosis and personalized medicine, through discrete counting of biomolecular reporters. Within this paradigm, we present a particle counting algorithm for nanoparticle based imaging assays, formulated as a multiple-hypothesis statistical test under an explicit image-formation model and evaluated using a penalized likelihood rule. In contrast to thresholding or machine learning methods, this approach requires no training data or empirical parameter tuning, and its outputs remain interpretable through direct links to imaging physics and statistical decision theory. Through numerical simulations we demonstrate robust count accuracy across weak signals, variable backgrounds, magnification changes and moderate PSF mismatch. Particle resolvability tests further reveal characteristic error modes, including under-counting at very small separations and localized over-counting near the resolution limit. Practically, we also confirm the algorithm's utility, through application to experimental dark-field images comprising a nanoparticle-based assay for detection of DNA biomarkers derived from SARS-CoV-2. Statistically significant differences in particle count distributions are observed between control and positive samples. Full count statistics obtained further exhibit consistent over-dispersion, and provide insight into non-specific and target-induced particle aggregation. These results establish our method as a reliable framework for nanoparticle-based detection assays in digital molecular diagnostics.