Prospects for geoneutrino detection with JUNO

Geoneutrinos, which are antineutrinos emitted during the decay of long-lived radioactive elements inside Earth, serve as a unique tool for studying the composition and heat budget of our planet. The Jiangmen Underground Neutrino Observatory (JUNO) experiment in China, which has recently completed construction, is expected to collect a sample comparable in size to the entire existing world geoneutrino dataset in less than a year. This paper presents an updated estimation of sensitivity to geoneutrinos of JUNO using the best knowledge available to date about the experimental site, the surrounding nuclear reactors, the detector response uncertainties, and the constraints expected from the TAO satellite detector. To facilitate comparison with present and future geological models, our results cover a wide range of predicted signal strengths. Despite the significant background from reactor antineutrinos, the experiment will measure the total geoneutrino flux with a precision comparable to that of existing experiments within its first few years, ultimately achieving a world-leading precision of about 8% over ten years. The large statistics of JUNO will also allow separation of the Uranium-238 and Thorium-232 contributions with unprecedented precision, providing crucial constraints on models of formation and composition of Earth. Observation of the mantle signal above the lithospheric flux will be possible but challenging. For models with the highest predicted mantle concentrations of heat-producing elements, a 3-sigma detection over six years requires knowledge of the lithospheric flux to within 15%. Together with complementary measurements from other locations, the geoneutrino results of JUNO will offer cutting-edge, high-precision insights into the interior of Earth, of fundamental importance to both the geoscience and neutrino physics communities.