Environmental vs. intrinsic quenching at cosmic noon: Predictions from cosmological hydrodynamical simulations for VLT-MOONRISE

We present an investigation into the quenching of simulated galaxies across cosmic time, honing in on the role played by both intrinsic and environmental mechanisms at different epochs. In anticipation of VLT-MOONRISE, the first wide-field spectroscopic galaxy survey to target cosmic noon, this work provides clear predictions to compare to the future observations. We investigate the quenching of centrals, high-mass satellites, and low-mass satellites from two cosmological hydrodynamical simulations: IllustrisTNG and EAGLE. Satellites are split according to bespoke mass thresholds, designed to separate environmental and intrinsic quenching mechanisms. To determine the best parameter for predicting quiescence, we apply a Random Forest classification analysis for each galaxy class at each epoch. The Random Forest classification determines supermassive black hole mass as the best predictor of quiescence in centrals and high-mass satellites. Alternatively, the quenching of low-mass satellites is best predicted by group halo mass, at all epochs. Additionally, we investigate the evolution in the dependence of the quenched fraction with various parameters, revealing a more complex picture. There is strong evidence for the rejuvenation of star formation from z = 2 to z = 0 in EAGLE, but not in IllustrisTNG. The starkest discrepancy between simulations rests in the mass threshold analysis. While IllustrisTNG predicts the existence of environmentally quenched satellites visible within the survey limits of MOONRISE, EAGLE does not. Hence, MOONRISE will provide critical data that is needed to evaluate current models, and constrain future models, of quenching processes.