Rapid and Late Cosmic Reionization Driven by Massive Galaxies: a Joint Analysis of Constraints from 21-cm, Lyman Line & CMB Data Sets

Observations of the Epoch of Reionization (EoR) have the potential to answer long-standing questions of astrophysical interest regarding the nature of the first luminous sources and their effects on the intergalactic medium (IGM). We present astrophysical constraints from a Neural Density Estimation-Accelerated Bayesian joint analysis of constraints deriving from Cosmic Microwave Background power spectrum measurements from Planck and SPT, IGM neutral fraction measurements from Lyman-line-based data sets and 21-cm power spectrum upper limits from HERA, LOFAR and the MWA. In the context of the model employed, the data is found to be consistent with galaxies forming from predominantly atomic-cooled hydrogen gas in dark matter halos, with masses $M_\mathrm{min} \gtrsim 2.6 \times 10^{9}~M_{\odot} ((1+z)/10)^{\frac{1}{2}}$ at 95% credibility ($V_\mathrm{c} \gtrsim 50~\mathrm{km~s^{-1}}$) being the dominant galactic population driving reionization. These galaxies reionize the neutral hydrogen in the IGM over a narrow redshift interval ($Δz_\mathrm{re} < 1.8$ at 95% credibility), with the midpoint of reionization (when the sky-averaged IGM neutral fraction is 50%) constrained to $z_{50} = 7.16^{+0.15}_{-0.12}$. Given the parameter posteriors from our joint analysis, we find that the posterior predictive distribution of the global 21-cm signal is reduced in amplitude and shifted to lower redshifts relative to the model prior. We caution, however, that our inferences are model-dependent. Future work incorporating updated, mass-dependent star formation efficiencies in atomic cooling halos, informed by the latest UV luminosity function constraints from the James Webb Space Telescope, promises to refine these inferences further and enhance our understanding of cosmic reionization.