pop-cosmos: Scaleable Inference of Galaxy Properties and Redshifts with a Data-driven Population Model

We present an efficient Bayesian method for estimating individual photometric redshifts and galaxy properties under a pretrained population model (pop-cosmos) that was calibrated using purely photometric data. This model specifies a prior distribution over 16 stellar population synthesis (SPS) parameters using a score-based diffusion model, and includes a data model with detailed treatment of nebular emission. We use a GPU-accelerated affine-invariant ensemble sampler to achieve fast posterior sampling under this model for 292,300 individual galaxies in the COSMOS2020 catalog, leveraging a neural network emulator (Speculator) to speed up the SPS calculations. We apply both the pop-cosmos population model and a baseline prior inspired by Prospector-α, and compare these results to published COSMOS2020 redshift estimates from the widely used EAZY and LePhare codes. For the ∼12,000 galaxies with spectroscopic redshifts, we find that pop-cosmos yields redshift estimates that have minimal bias (∼10−4), high accuracy (σ MAD = 7 × 10−3), and a low outlier rate (1.6%). We show that the pop-cosmos population model generalizes well to galaxies fainter than its r < 25 mag training set. The sample we have analyzed is ≳3× larger than has previously been possible via posterior sampling with a full SPS model, with average throughput of 15 GPU-sec per galaxy under the pop-cosmos prior, and 0.6 GPU-sec per galaxy under the Prospector prior. This paves the way for principled modeling of the huge catalogs expected from upcoming Stage IV galaxy surveys.