MGLenS: Modified gravity weak lensing simulations for emulation-based cosmological inference

We present MGLenS, a large series of modified gravity lensing simulations tailored for cosmic shear data analyses and forecasts in which cosmological and modified gravity parameters are varied simultaneously. Based on the FORGE and BRIDGE $N$-body simulation suites presented in companion papers, we construct 500,000 deg$^2$ of mock Stage-IV lensing data, sampling a pair of 4-dimensional volumes designed for the training of emulators. We validate the accuracy of MGLenS with inference analyses based on the lensing power spectrum exploiting our implementation of $f(R)$ and nDGP theoretical predictions within the cosmoSIS cosmological inference package. A Fisher analysis reveals that the vast majority of the constraining power from such a survey comes from the highest redshift galaxies alone. We further find from a full likelihood sampling that cosmic shear can achieve 95% CL constraints on the modified gravity parameters of log$_{10}\left[ f_{R_0}\right] < -5.24$ and log$_{10}\left[ H_0 r_c\right] > -0.05$, after marginalising over intrinsic alignments of galaxies and including scales up to $\ell=5000$. Such a survey setup could in fact detect with more than $3σ$ confidence $f(R)$ values larger than $3 \times 10^{-6}$ and $H_0 r_c$ smaller than 1.0. Scale cuts at $\ell=3000$ reduce the degeneracy breaking between $S_8$ and the modified gravity parameters, while photometric redshift uncertainty seem to play a subdominant role in our error budget. We finally explore the consequences of analysing data with the wrong gravity model, and report the catastrophic biases for a number of possible scenarios. The Stage-IV MGLenS simulations, the FORGE and BRIDGE emulators and the cosmoSIS interface modules will be made publicly available upon journal acceptance.