Bayesian inference-driven model parameterization and model selection for 2CLJQ fluid models

A high level of physical detail in a molecular model improves its ability to perform high accuracy simulations, but can also significantly affect its complexity and computational cost. In some situations, it is worthwhile to add additional complexity to a model to capture properties of interest; in others, additional complexity is unnecessary and can make simulations computationally infeasible. In this work we demonstrate the use of Bayes factors for molecular model selection, using Monte Carlo sampling techniques to evaluate the evidence for different levels of complexity in the two-centered Lennard-Jones + quadrupole (2CLJQ) fluid model. Examining three levels of nested model complexity, we demonstrate that the use of variable quadrupole and bond length parameters in this model framework is justified only sometimes. We also explore the effect of the Bayesian prior distribution on the Bayes factors, as well as ways to propose meaningful prior distributions. This Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) process is enabled by the use of analytical surrogate models that accurately approximate the physical properties of interest. This work paves the way for further atomistic model selection work via Bayesian inference and surrogate modeling