Statistical Study of Magnetic Nonpotential Measures in Confined and Eruptive Flares

Using Solar Dynamics Observatory/Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager vector magnetic field observations, we studied the relation between the degree of magnetic non-potentiality with the observed flare/coronal mass ejection (CME) in active regions (ARs). From a sample of 77 flare/CME cases, we found in general that the degree of non-potentiality is positively correlated with the flare strength and the associated CME speed. Since the magnetic flux in the flare-ribbon area is more related to the reconnection, we trace the strong gradient polarity inversion line (SGPIL) and Schrijver’s R value manually along the flare-ribbon extent. Manually detected SGPIL length and R values show higher correlation with the flare strength and CME speed than automatically traced values without flare-ribbon information. This highlights the difficulty of predicting the flare strength and CME speed a priori from the pre-flare magnetograms used in flare prediction models. Although the total potential magnetic energy proxies show a weak positive correlation, the decrease in free energy exhibits a higher correlation (0.56) with the flare strength and CME speed. Moreover, eruptive flares have thresholds of SGPIL length (31 Mm), R value (1.6 × 1019 Mx), and free energy decrease (2 × 1031 erg) compared to confined flares. In 90% of eruptive flares, the decay-index curve is steeper, reaching within 42 Mm, whereas it is beyond this value in >70% of confined flares. While indicating improved statistics in the predictive capability of AR eruptive behavior with flare-ribbon information, our study provides threshold magnetic properties for a flare to be eruptive.