The peculiar light-curve of J1415+1320: A case study in extreme scattering events

The radio light-curve of J1415+1320 (PKS 1413+135) shows time-symmetric and recurring U-shaped features across the cm-wave and mm-wave bands. The symmetry of these features points to lensing by an intervening object as the cause. U-shaped events in radio light curves in the cm-wave band have previously been attributed to Extreme scattering events (ESE). ESEs are thought to be the result of lensing by compact plasma structures in the Galactic interstellar medium, but the precise nature of these plasma structures remains unknown. Since the strength of a plasma lens evolves with wavelength $λ$ as $λ^2$, the presence of correlated variations at over a wide wavelength range casts doubt on the canonical ESE interpretation for J1415+1320. In this paper, we critically examine the evidence for plasma lensing in J1415+1320. We compute limits on the lensing strength, and the associated free-free opacity of the putative plasma lenses. We compare the observed and model ESE light curves, and also derive a lower limit on the lens distance based on the effects of parallax due to the Earth's orbit around the Sun. We conclude that plasma lensing is not a viable interpretation for J1415+1320's light curves and that symmetric U-shaped features in the radio light curves of extragalactic sources do not present {\em prima facie} evidence for ESEs. The methodology presented here is generic enough to be applicable to any plasma lensing candidate.