The Dengue risk transmission during the FIFA 2014 World Cup

ABSTRACT: Dengue is a persistent threat to Brazilians. The twentieth FIFA World Cup will take place in Brazil in June and July this year. This paper warning that Dengue fever could be not a significant problem in competition locations. Temperature is a very strong predictor of suitability for Dengue and it seems evident that relative humidity measurements are less satisfactory in biological (ecological, entomological or even in epidemiological studies) work as indicator of atmospheric factors influencing evaporation than are measurements of vapor pressure deficit. In fact, the vapour pressure deficit is a much more sensitive indicator of water vapor conditions of the atmosphere and undergoes greater variations for temperature changes than does the relative humidity. Further, relative humidity alone gives no indication of the rate of evaporation while the vapour pressure deficit alone does give an indication of the evaporation rates, then areas having the same vapour pressure deficit do influence evaporation rates in the same way whether temperature are identical or not. It is the reason why vapour pressure deficit was chosen in this study. Human and mosquito populations associated with precipitation are good predictors of Dengue in suitable places but don’t capture the whole picture. The determinants of Dengue virus transmission is composition of suitable climate, susceptible people and competent mosquitos virus interactions. For the 2014 World Cup twelve host cities the Dengue risk transmission will be not close to its peak when matches will be played, because this is a non epidemic period overall the brazilian territory. Despite the low risk – it always exists - the Brazilian authorities must communicate this fact and what protective measures FIFA World Cup fans should be take. In fact, the risk of an outbreak of dengue fever during the upcoming soccer World Cup in Brazil is not serious enough to warrant a high alert in the host cities, according to an early warning system for the disease.