Hidden Markov Mixture Autoregressive Models: Parameter Estimation

This report introduces a parsimonious structure for mixture of autoregressive models, where the weighting coefficients are determined through latent random variables as functions of all past observations. These variables follow a hidden Markov model. We modify EM and Baum-Welch algorithms to estimate the parameters of the model. MSC: primary 62M10, 60J10 secondary 60G25