The Implications of the Early Formation of Life on Earth

One of the most interesting unsolved questions in science today is the question of life on other planets. At the present time it is safe to say that we do not have much of an idea as to whether life is common or exceedingly rare in the universe, and this will probably not be solved for certain unless definitive evidence of extraterrestrial life is found in the future. Our presence on Earth is just as consistent with the hypothesis that life is extremely rare as it is with the hypothesis that it is common, since if there was only one planet with intelligent life, we would find ourselves on it. However, we have more information than this, such as the the surprisingly short length of time it took for life to arise on Earth. Previous authors have analysed this information, concluding that it is evidence that the probability of abiogenesis is moderate ($>$ 13% with 95% probability) and cannot be extremely small. In this paper I use simple probabilistic model to show that this conclusion was based more on an unintentional assumption than on the data. While the early formation of life on Earth provides some evidence in the direction of life being common, it is far from conclusive, and in particular does not rule out the possibility that abiogenesis has only occurred once in the history of the universe.