Chemistry in Protoplanetary Disks: A Sensitivity Analysis

We study how uncertainties in the rate coefficients of chemical reactions in the RATE 06 database affect abundances and column densities of key molecules in protoplanetary disks. We randomly varied the gas-phase reaction rates within their uncertainty limits and calculated the time-dependent abundances and column densities using a gas-grain chemical model and a flaring steady state disk model. We find that key species can be separated into two distinct groups according to the sensitivity of their column densities to the rate uncertainties. The first group includes CO, C+, H+3, H2O, NH3, N2H+, and HCNH+. For these species the column densities are not very sensitive to the rate uncertainties, but the abundances in specific regions are. The second group includes CS, CO2, HCO+, H2CO, C2H, CN, HCN, HNC, and other, more complex species, for which high abundances and abundance uncertainties coexist in the same disk region, leading to larger scatters in column densities. However, even for complex and heavy molecules, the dispersion in their column densities is not more than a factor of ~4. We perform a sensitivity analysis of the computed abundances to rate uncertainties and identify those reactions with the most problematic rate coefficients. We conclude that the rate coefficients of about a hundred chemical reactions need to be determined more accurately in order to greatly improve the reliability of modern astrochemical models. This improvement should be an ultimate goal of future laboratory studies and theoretical investigations.