The low-luminosity tail of the GRB distribution: the case of GRB 980425

(abridged) The association of GRB 980425 with SN 1998bw at z=0.0085 implies the existence of a population of GRBs with an isotropic-equivalent luminosity which is about 10^4 times smaller than in the standard cosmological case. We investigate two scenarios to explain a weak GRB : a normal (intrinsically bright) GRB seen off-axis or an intrinsically weak GRB seen on-axis. For each of these two scenarios, we first derive the conditions to produce a GRB 980425-like event and we then discuss the consequences for the event rate. If we exclude the possibility that GRB 980425 is an occurence of an extremely rare event observed by chance during the first eight years of the 'afterglow era', the first scenario implies that (i) the local rate of standard bright GRBs is much higher than what is usually expected; (ii) the typical opening angle is much narrower than what is derived from observations of a break in the afterglow lightcurve. In addition, we show that the afterglow of GRB 980425 in this scenario should have been very bright and easily detected. For these reasons the second scenario appears more realistic. We show that the parameter space of the internal shock model indeed allows GRB 980425-like events, in cases where the outflow is only mildly-relativistic and mildly-energetic. The rate of such weak events in the Universe has to be much higher than the rate of standard bright GRBs to allow the discovery of GRB 980425 during a short period of a few years. However it is still compatible with the observations as the intrinsic weakness of these GRB 980425-like bursts does not allow detection at cosmological redshift. We finally briefly discuss the consequences of such a high local rate of GRB 980425-like events for the future prospects of detecting non-electromagnetic radiation, especially gravitational waves.